Research
Research
Selected Works in Progress
The Public Sector Advantage: Short and Long-Run Impacts of Government Employment
Incentivizing Success: Assessing the Impact of Texas's Incentive Allotment Program on Teacher Labor Markets and Student Outcomes
with Cecilia Moreira and Lauren Harris
Unconditional Cash Over Time: A Meta-Analysis of the Dynamic Effects of Guaranteed Income in the U.S.
with Eleni Packis, Tre Wells, Therese Bonomo, and Sheridan Fuller
with Ezra Karger
Abstract: We identify 22,461 recipients of COVID-19 Economic Impact Payments in anonymized transaction-level bank account data from Facteus. We use an event study framework to show that in the two weeks following a $1,200 stimulus payment in April 2020, consumers increased spending by $546, implying a marginal propensity to consume of 46%. Consumers used an additional 10% of the stimulus payment to pay off debt. Consumer spending fell to normal levels after two weeks. Stimulus recipients who live paycheck-to-paycheck spent 60% of the stimulus payment within two weeks, while recipients who save much of their monthly income spent only 24% of the stimulus payment within two weeks. Spending patterns are quite similar for the second round of stimulus payments in January, 2021, with consumers spending 39% of their stimulus payments within two weeks and using an additional 14% of their payment to pay off debt. Reweighting our data to match the U.S. population, ignoring equilibrium effects, and assuming a constant MPC for each person, we estimate that the CARES Act’s $296 billion of stimulus payments increased consumer spending by $130 billion (44% of total outlays) within two weeks of stimulus receipt. A stimulus bill targeted at individuals with the highest MPCs could have increased consumer spending and debt payments by the same amount at a cost of only $246 billion.
Publications
The Effects of the Great Migration on Urban Renewal
with Ying Shi, Daniel Hartley, and Bhash Mazumder
Journal of Public Economics (2022)
Abstract: The Great Migration significantly increased the number of African American people moving to northern and western cities beginning in the first half of the twentieth century. We show that their arrival shaped “slum clearance” and urban redevelopment efforts in receiving cities. To estimate the effect of migrants, we instrument for Black population changes using a shift-share instrument that interacts historical migration patterns with local economic shocks that predict Black out-migration from the South. We find that local governments responded by undertaking more urban renewal projects that aimed to redevelop and rehabilitate “blighted” areas. More Black migrants also led to an increase in family displacement. This underscores the contribution of spatial policies such as urban renewal towards understanding the long-term consequences of the Great Migration on central cities, and Black neighborhoods and individuals.
Policy Briefs
Who we count shapes how we measure housing supply and affordability [PDF]
with Elena Patel and Natalie Tomeh
Brookings Research (2026)
with Elena Patel
Brookings Research (2025)
with Elena Patel and Natalie Tomeh
Brookings Research (2024)
Did Covid-19 disproportionately affect mothers’ labor market activity. [PDF]
with Daniel Aaronson and Luojia Hu
Chicago Fed Letter 450 (2021)
with Jason Faberman
Chicago Fed Insights (2020)
How much did the minimum wage drive real wage growth during the late 2010s? [PDF]
with Daniel Aaronson and Luojia Hu
Chicago Fed Letter (2020)
How similar are credit scores across generations? [PDF]
with Daniel Hartley and Bhashkar Mazumder
Chicago Fed Letter (2019)
Explaining variation in real wage growth over the recent expansion [PDF]
with Daniel Aaronson and Luojia Hu
Chicago Fed Letter (2019)